Predictions: F12020, 9th August 2020
Note: I will not be watching the race next week due to prior appointments. So, will be commenting from race highlights
After 2nd August 2020 — I thought it would be good to always check the day’s chart.
Perhaps a bit less eventful — only one Stem Contrast but a Yang Gate Day. It the Yin Gate day had 3 DNFs of which 2 crashes but one looked pretty bad, 3 tyres blowing up, a few Black and White Flags and penalties? Would the Yang Gate day be just as exciting?
To add foil to the fodder, it also happens to bring a lot of HELLGATEs and two bad horses for various drivers. I think it should be an exciting race. Drivers please take care and driver safety. I reckon (my theory) H4s and Gates are more physical in nature — whilst Bad Horses are more psychological, sad disappointments ‘So close yet so far, or just not close enough’.
My theory is Hellgates equate to car problems (remember Bottas winning 1P on a HG — he was just glad he finished). Also bad Horses prevent drivers from finishing on the podium. 5 July 2020 Ricciardo had a time HG and DNF. 19 July 2020 was the last race with Hellgates — Gasly had car problems and Latifi finished last.
Predictions for 9 Aug 2020
Rationalising the Predictions
- This race would be who is having the least bad day, I think. Interestingly, a lot of drivers have PRs for the DAY Stem. Fewer with PRs or REs in the Time Stem.
- I have separated the drivers into 3 sets.
First Set: 1P to 4P
- My theory is two bad horses may prevent Hamilton from the Podium again. Hamilton narrowly missed the podium by a tenth of a second when he had a bad horse, because of his added time penalty on 5JUL2020. This round theres 2 bad horse, so I do wonder what is the cumulative effect.
- I think Bottas has a good chance to win on the HG. He did it on 5JUL2020 without aid from elements in the Day and Time — surely he can do it again? Additionally the day Stem is S3 — which is his Perfect Requirement, he is iron ore wanting to cut down trees — so I would predict, he will be given the opportunity to show the World what he has got. He also has a Shooting Star in his time too. My only worry is the the Separation/Travel star in his day and time — maybe he starts the race ‘behind’ and travels to the top? Not wanting to jinx things… But if he stays strong in the top 3P, I am scared he will slide far back like yesterday at the last minute. My recommendation is Merc plays a safe strategy next week and don’t push Bottas’ car like they did 2AUG2020 — so close yet so far.
- Leclerc was able to place 3P with H4 on a ‘Favourable Element’ day (2AUG2020) and placed 3P on H4 Time PR day (5JUL2020). However, on (19JUL2020) Leclerc had Day Stem PR and only came in 11P. Given he has PRs in his Day and Time Stems, I would hope he places on podium.
- Musing: If Bottas and Leclerc do not make podium — both STRONG Metals, I am going to theorize that STRONG Metals don’t perform as well when its Day Stem PR… However, its S3 Wood — theoretically this is their opportunity to be very effective and make good money, bonuses.
- I am not sure about how Verstappen will do, I am a bit afraid of the double Emptiness in the Day and Time for him — which is not good for Wood. He does have a Shooting Star in his Day, although I think the Star is not racing relevant. Based on the two past statistics, he had Emptiness in Day and Time on 5JUL2020 and DNF-ed where his car broke down at best had Time Stem RE. However, yesterday (2AUG2020) he had Day STEM PR and came in 2nd despite the Emptiness. On the 9AUG2020 he has Day STEM FE and Time STEM RE, I haven’t seen how he performs with a Day STEM FE (but 12JUL2020 he came in 3P with a Time STEM FE).
Second Set: 5P to 12P, are the drivers who do not have a combination the Hellgates, H4s and Bad Horses — exception being Magnussen who has two bad horses, no Hellgate but a 13Lucky.
- Note previously drivers with HG have outperformed some drivers without HGs. However this time around there is an added complexity of Bad Horses, H4s, D2s and Emptiness (and sometimes double damage) for these drivers. So, it doesn’t look as great.
- For this batch, my main worry is there’s a lot of D1s — which we have seen in past races, D1 cars parts flying off and/or issues with the car. My only consolation is D1 is supposedly less extreme than Hellgates. So we shall see. Would D1s be less of a hurdle then H4s?
- I tried to extrapolate their likelihoods to their past ‘D1’ performances from 2AUG2020. It they had better STEM luck, I ranked them higher then past polling position.
- Notably 9 August 2020, is double whammy H4 for Albonin the upcoming race— so he may have to fight twice as hard for 6P, however he does have Stem PR — so I was torn at putting him at the front of the pack or back of the pack, did it mean even tougher hurdles? Albon seems to be quite susceptible to H4s, given past performances — collisions and penalties. I think he might have hurdles this race but he demonstrates much grit and ability to climb the ranks — as well as Guardians to protect him, touchwood, from collisions. This time, he has no Emptiness to weaken him. My only worry is that the last time he collided with Hamilton ending up in 13P (5JUL2020), and Magnussen ending in 8P (2AUG2020).
Third Set: 13P to 20P, the drivers with some combination of Hellgates, bad horses, H4s. I put the Hellgates with H4s more to the back.
- I tried to extrapolate their likelihoods to their past ‘HG+H4+Horses (if any)’ performances from 19JUL2020. It they had better STEM luck, I ranked them higher then past polling position.
- Ricciardo, Vettel and Sianz were put into the third batch partly as they didn’t have as much supporting PRs or REs in both Day and Time, as compared to those in the Second Set.
- I put Sainz, Ricciardo and Vettel as front favourites for this batch due to the Shooting Stars in their time and past performance. I think there is hope Sainz finishes much high given he has a Day Stem PR — and he had finished 9P on only a Day Stem FE on 19 Jul 2020.
- Hulkenberg has a Shooting Star — but I don’t know what his capability is. He has a great balance chart and similar STRONG Metal structure like Sainz, Bottas and Leclerc, so as long as the car starts on 9AUG2020, he should do well — i reckon.
So we shall see…
